Volume 4, Issue 2, December (2017)

 

    Structural Break, Nonlinearity and the Hysteresis hypothesis: Evidence from new unit root tests.

 

 
  Zarina Oflaz[1]  
  Abstract  
 

We have checked whether there exists hysteresis hypothesis in 25 OECD countries covering the period from September, 1983 to September,2013 by using the unit root test which includes nonlinearity and structural break in their testing process.  In particular, LNV test proposed by Leybourne, Newbold and Vougas (1998), EG test developed by Enders and Granger (1998), the nonlinear KSS unit root test of Kapetanios et al., (2003), Sollis’ (2009) test, combined KSS-LNV test developed by Omay and Yildirim (2014), combined LNV-Sollis test by Omay et al (2017), modified unit root test with Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form by Omay (2015) and EST test by Corakcı et al., (2017).

 
 

Keywords: Hysteresis hypothesis; Structural Break; Nonlinearity.

JEL Codes:  C23, J64.

 

Doi: 10.5455/ELet.2017.4.2.1

[1] Middle East Technical University, nukesh.zar@mail.ru.

 

         Panel Co-integration between Economic Growth and Non-tax revenue among Indian States

 
  Alok Kumar Pandey [1]

Annapurna Dixit[2]

 
  Abstract  
 

Present study tries to explore the stationarity and co-integration between Non-tax revenue and State Domestic Product of twenty major states of Indian federal system under panel data structure. LLC (2002) and IPS (2003) tests of stationarity have been used to detect unit root in the panel series. Kao (1999) test of panel co-integration shows that the SDP and NTR and NTR and SDP for the twenty states for the period under study are co-integrated. The results of the study suggest that state domestic product of the states are causing the non-tax revenue of the states  and  the non-tax revenue of the states  are also causing state domestic product of the states for Indian federal system.

 
 

Keywords: State Domestic Production, Non-tax Revenue, Panel Unit Root, Panel Co-integration.

JEL Codes:  H2; C23.

 

Doi: 10.5455/ELet.2017.4.2.2

[1] Assistant Professor, Centre for Integrated Rural Development, FSS, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi.

[2] Assistant Professor, Deptt. of Economics, Arya Mahila PG College, BHU, Varanasi.

 

           Business Cycle Analysis for the Midland-Odessa Petroplex  
  Elisabeth Downs [1]

Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.[2]

 
  Abstract  
 

A business cycle coincident index (BCI) for the Midland-Odessa region is developed using a dynamic single factor modeling methodology.  The model assumes that co-movements of metropolitan economic indicators have a common element that can be summarized as a single underlying and unobservable variable known as the “state of the economy.”  The model utilizes a Kalman filter smoothing approach which smooths the index across time and across indicators, resulting in index movements that are less pronounced during expansions and recessions.  Indicator series used to estimate the Midland-Odessa BCI are: employment, the unemployment rate, real retail sales, and total real wages.  The estimated BCI exhibits movements that are correlated with national economic contractions and expansions, movements in oil prices, and an existing Midland-Odessa business cycle index.

 
  Keywords: Regional Business Cycles; Kalman Filter; Coincident Indicators

JEL Codes:  C51 ; E32; R15

 

Doi: 10.5455/ELet.2017.4.2.3

[1] CBRE Suite 2100, 221 North Kansas Street, El Paso, TX 79901, elisabeth.downs@cbre.com, 915-313-8818

[2] Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968-0543, tomf@utep.edu, 915-747-7747